Hello from Panthera Consultancy, welcome to this week’s FX briefing. Each week, we review what mattered last week and highlight the price drivers and events to watch so you can act with confidence
🔍 FX Market Snapshot: EUR, GBP & USD
| Pair | Latest XE mid-market rate* | Recent movement summary | |
| GBP / USD | ~1.34s | Sterling has held firm as the USD softened on geopolitics/risk sentiment. | |
| EUR / USD | ~1.17 | Eurozone inflation remains at ~2.2%, and growth is modest. The ECB is EUR benefited from the softer USD, but risk headlines remain the main driver in the near term. | |
| EUR / GBP | ~0.869 | EUR/GBP has been relatively contained, with UK data the next big catalyst. |
🔁 Look back — what moved last week (13–19 Jan)
Headline: USD softened as geopolitics and “risk-off” positioning weighed on the dollar
Markets were rattled by geopolitical/tariff headlines and broader “sell America” risk sentiment. That helped GBP and EUR hold up versus USD into the end of last week and early this week.
GBP / USD
- Weekly range: ~1.3482 high (13 Jan) to ~1.3348 low (18 Jan) (about a 1.0% range).
- What drove it: USD-side moves dominated (global risk headlines). UK fundamentals were more “secondary”, but markets also started looking ahead to a busy UK data run.
EUR / USD
- Weekly range: ~1.1673 high (13 Jan) to ~1.1577 low (18–19 Jan area).
- What drove it: again, mainly USD directionality + risk sentiment, rather than a clean “euro story”.
EUR / GBP
- Weekly range: ~0.8654 low (15 Jan) to ~0.8696 high (20 Jan) (tight, but creeping higher).
- What drove it: EUR/GBP stayed more rangebound, with the market essentially waiting for clearer UK macro signals.
🔭 Look forward — what to watch this week (20–26 Jan)
Key macro & policy events
- UK CPI (Dec 2025) — Wed 21 Jan, 7:00am (ONS confirmed): biggest near-term event risk for GBP crosses. A hotter print can lift GBP (or reduce rate-cut expectations); a softer print can pressure GBP.
- UK labour market — released today (20 Jan): wage/employment trends are already softening, which matters for the BoE path and can cap GBP rallies if CPI also comes in weak.
- US PCE (BEA) — next release Thu 22 Jan: key inflation input for Fed expectations and the USD.
- Geopolitics / tariff headlines: still a live volatility driver; FX may react quickly to new statements or escalation.
Market positioning & trade triggers
- If UK CPI surprises higher: GBP could pop quickly; consider having orders/levels ready if you have near-term GBP needs.
- If US inflation data surprises higher: USD could snap back (EUR/USD and GBP/USD downside risk).
🛠 Strategic implications (practical actions)
- Have GBP exposure in the next 48 hours? Consider staging execution (split into tranches) around the UK CPI release window rather than doing it all at once.
- Have USD receivables or payments this week? With geopolitics driving sharp intraday moves, consider using target orders (buy/sell orders) rather than “spot on the day”.
- If you’re budgeting for 2026 FX costs: build a simple “decision tree” (what you do if GBP/USD breaks higher vs lower) and pre-agree levels—this is where we typically save clients more than chasing a tiny spot improvement.
If you’d like to discuss how these trends might impact your business, reply to this email and we’ll help map your exposures and timing.
Thank you for reading, and I look forward to staying in touch next week.
All the best,
Panthera Consultancy